As President of iMedExchange, I follow most of the happenings among Internet-related businesses in order to understand how innovation occurs in our industry. Internet-related businesses are a terrific example of an extremely large and consequential industry that is still very much influenced by individual innovators.
Recently this same industry has been making quite a fuss about the Microsoft offer for Yahoo, and then of course Google’s offer of assistance to Yahoo to escape the clutches of Microsoft. What is really going on here, I asked myself. Is Google really trying to help Yahoo to avoid falling prey to a $46 Billion acquisition?
Without too much preamble, let’s be clear. This is not necessarily the worst thing from Google’s vantage point. Consider, if you would, a bit of whimsical or at the least, a counter-intuitive and more Machiavellian explanation of the behavior we are witnessing.
First, why does one think Microsoft is trying to buy Yahoo? Obviously, for the same reason they bought aQuantive, the Seattle-based online advertising company. It’s a helluva lot easier to buy than build when you’ve got a ton of cash(last I heard, Microsoft generates more than $1 Billion per month in free cash flow) as well as an inadequate supply of people who are experienced innovators and builders of internet related businesses. Lest we forget, Microsoft was late to the Internet party, although extremely successful at being the second or even third entrant in a number of related technologies and businesses.
Second, if Yahoo is acquired, then all of those innovative people who know a great deal about Internet advertising are going to receive a “boat-load” of money, presumably from having their stock options become more valuable than was the case before Microsoft’s bid. Some of them may be either enticed or locked in by Microsoft for some period of time, but some will depart out the back door with wheel barrels of green stuff. Those that remain may or may not get absorbed into the Microsoft bureaucracy; and they may or may not be able to continue to innovate, a la Yahoo; at least before Google’s search engine began to drive Yahoo’s value down.
So, if you’re Google, maybe it would be better for Yahoo to get acquired and have the human talent still employed there be diluted and or disappear into the annals of business history. If you’re a player at Google and you believe that, how would you raise the likelihood of this happening?
First thing you would do is let everyone know you’re against the merger. That way the Department of Justice is likely to let it go through, since Google has such a high market share of online advertising (nearly two thirds of the market) and the prospect of a Microsoft/Yahoo merger doesn’t even come close to 33% of Google’s share; and if Google is afraid of this combination, then it must be good for competition.
Second thing you would do is offer aid to Yahoo. This further confirms, in the public eye, your fear of the merger. It also suggests to Yahoo that they still have significant market value and that their Board of Directors should refuse the offer (which is exactly what they just did) in order to either remain an independent company or get a better offer.
Let’s face it, a higher offer would be Yahoo’s best and most desirable scenario, since they’ve been steadily losing the war to Google. They don’t have pockets as deep as Microsoft’s, and their shareholders are crying foul regarding the management of the firm over the last few years as Yahoo market value has fallen.
So, if you, being Google, want to retain your dominance of the online marketing world, what better way to do it then to have your erstwhile enemy up north in Washington acquire your nearest competitor? Further, why not use some non-intuitive reverse psychology to motivate the “kids” to act according to your real wishes. Tell the world you don’t want what you really do want to happen. Everyone will think you’ve been fooled or beaten when it comes to pass; everyone, except those people who better understand your self-interest and the importance of innovators on the Internet. Or perhaps this is all just whimsy. After all, who knows what lurks in the minds of Billionaires in Redmond or Silicon Valley?